China Growth, Not Paulson, May Force Yuan Revaluation

The world's fastest-growing economy is so hot that the government is considering a currency revaluation prompted by uncontrollable money supply growth, inflation, a runaway stock market and ballooning foreign exchange reserves.

Paulson, whose mandate as U.S. Treasury Secretary amounts to pleas for a stronger yuan, will be only too happy to give credit for the Chinese policy shift to the laws of economics. The People's Bank of China allowed its currency to trade in a wider range, raised interest rates and curbed bank lending on May 18, four days ahead of a meeting between Vice Premier Wu Yi and Paulson in Washington.

``This is a modest and methodical act and very much in keeping with China's own interest,'' said Charlene Barshefsky, the chief U.S. trade negotiator from 1997 to 2001 and now a senior international partner at the law firm WilmerHale in Washington. ``It needs greater control over its economy and it needs to do that now.''

The central bank said the yuan will be allowed to move as much as 0.5 percent on either side of the daily rate it sets against the dollar, up from the current 0.3 percent. The government also raised its one-year benchmark lending rate for the fourth time since April, to 6.57 percent, and boosted bank reserve requirements for the eighth time, by half a percentage point to 11.5 percent.

China Factory, Property Spending May Grow 25 %

China's spending on factories and real estate probably grew 25.3 percent in the first four months of 2007 from a year earlier, suggesting the central bank may need to raise interest rates to cool investment.

That's the median estimate of 19 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News and compares with a 29.6 percent increase in urban fixed-asset investment a year earlier. The statistics bureau releases the figures at 10 a.m. on May 17.

The pace of investment increases the risk that the world's fastest-growing major economy will be saddled with idle factories and bad loans if demand unexpectedly slows. Central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan is also concerned a bubble is growing in the stock market as booming exports pump cash into the economy.

``Liquidity and too much credit are again fueling a cycle of poor-quality investment and industrial overcapacity,'' said Michael Kurtz, an economist at Bear Stearns Asia Ltd. in Hong Kong. ``Three more interest rate hikes are likely before the end of the year -- at a minimum.''

The full-year increase in fixed-asset investment in 2006 was 24.5 percent.

Industrial production likely climbed 17.5 percent in April from a year earlier, little changed from 17.6 percent growth in March, the Bloomberg News survey showed. That figure is due at 10 a.m. tomorrow.

The People's Bank of China has raised borrowing costs three times since April 2006 and ordered banks to set aside larger reserves seven times. The one-year benchmark interest rate is 6.39 percent.

Widening Trade Surplus

China's trade surplus for the first four months widened to $63.3 billion, 88 percent more than a year earlier.

Industrial companies' profits jumped 44 percent in the first two months, swelling investment coffers since state businesses retain their profits. Baosteel Group Corp., China's biggest steelmaker, and Handan Iron & Steel Group plan to build a 19 billion yuan ($2.5 billion) plant in the northern city of Handan to boost production.

``China should mandate a dividend policy so that parts of those incomes go back to the central government, who should allocate the resources to social services, helping to boost consumption as well,'' said Jing Ulrich, chairwoman of China equities at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Hong Kong.

Manufacturing overcapacity may lead to deflation and turn investment growth into a ``curse,'' the Asian Development Bank said in March. The nation's steelmaking capacity of 462 million metric tons at the end of 2006 was 10 percent more than production.

`Extraordinary' Investment Level

China's average of a 43 percent investment to gross domestic product ratio over the past three years was the highest in the world, according to HSBC Holdings' economist Qu Hongbin in Hong Kong.

``Such an extraordinary investment ratio has already caused some concerns among the Chinese policymakers about the efficiency of investment,'' Qu said in a May 7 report. ``Indeed, when China is investing more than 40 percent of its GDP every year, it is inevitable that some low-return and white elephant construction projects have emerged, particularly when local governments are heavily involved in investment.''

M2, the broadest measure of money supply, grew 17.1 percent in April, exceeding the central bank's target for a third month. Banks extended 1.8 trillion yuan of new loans in the first four months, more than half the total for the whole of last year.

The benchmark CSI 300 Index of stocks has soared more than 80 percent this year as Chinese households flock to the market.


Besides monetary policy, the central bank is using administrative measures to try to cool fixed-asset investment, such as minimum prices for land for industrial developments from Jan. 1. New investment projects fell by 2,294 to 31,117 in the first quarter from a year earlier, according to the statistics bureau.

China's government has raised minimum wages and expanded the welfare system to try to tilt economic growth towards consumption instead of relying so heavily on exports and investment.

Retail sales probably gained 15.1 percent in April from a year earlier, little changed from the previous month's 15.3 percent gain, the Bloomberg News survey showed. The statistics bureau will release the figures at 10 a.m. today.

China's economy, the world's fourth-largest, grew 11.1 percent in the first quarter, accelerating from 10.4 percent in the previous three months.

The following tables show economists' estimates for percentage changes in China's urban fixed-asset investment in the first four months from a year earlier, followed by growth in industrial production and retail sales in April.

Story from my..........

"My grandfather took me to the fish pond on the farm when I was about seven, and he told me to throw a stone into the water. He told me to watch the circles created by the stone. Then he asked me to think of myself as that stone person.

"You may create lots of splashes in your life but the waves that come from those splashes will disturb the peace of all your fellow creatures," he said.

"Remember that you are responsible for what you put in your circle and that circle will also touch many other circles. You will need to live in a way that allows the good that comes from your circle to send the peace of that goodness to others. The splash that comes from anger or jealousy will send those feelings to other circles. You are responsible for both."

That was the first time I realized each person creates the inner peace or discord that flows out into the world. We cannot create world peace if we are riddled with inner conflict, hatred, doubt, or anger. We radiate the feelings and thoughts that we hold inside, whether we speak them or not. Whatever is splashing around inside of us is spilling out into the world, creating beauty or discord with all other circles of life.

CPO Inventory Getting Dangerously Low

Inventory level continued to make new multi-year low, falling to its lowest since May ’04 as seasonal increase in production could not keep up with demand. With Indonesia’s production still yet to recover from last year’s draught, we believe inventory level will fall further albeit at a less drastic pace. This will continue to be supportive of CPO prices which in turn will lead to the Plantation Sector maintaining its outperformance over the KLCI. Maintain Overweight on the Plantation Sector with CY07 average CPO price assumption of RM2,150/t.

Production picking up. April production increased by 4.1% m-o-m to 1.125m tonnes, bringing total production to-date to 4.311m tonnes. Compared to April last year, production was down by 14.2%. On cumulative basis, production was 5.1% lower. The lower production was due to slower Peninsular Malaysia production, which was 264k tonnes less than the first 4 months of last year. Sabah’s cumulative production was 1.3% higher but still, output has been down on y-o-y basis for the past 2 months. We believe production will pick up more significantly in the 2H to make up for the current slow production.

Exports up on India and Pakistan. Exports rose to 1.118m tonnes (+5.9% m-o-m) despite slower exports to China (-99.1k tonnes) as this was more than made up by increase in exports to India (+82.1k tonnes) and Pakistan (+48.8k tonnes). On cumulative basis, exports were down by 9.0% to 3.941m tonnes on lower production and higher local usage. The dip in Indonesian production plus the recent imposition of higher exports duty in Indonesia as an attempt to manage cooking oil prices will boost Malaysia’s exports.

Stock level hit another multi-year low. With exports taking up 99.4% of April’s production, stock level fell by 11.7% m-o-m to just 1.181m tonnes, the lowest since May ’04. We believe exports will continue to be robust on the back of strong demand plus supply shortfall from Indonesia. This will help push inventory to below 1.0m tonnes in the not too distant future even without the biodiesel factor.

Strong CPO price performance y-t-d. CPO prices averaged RM2,045 y-t-d based on MPOB prices, which was up by RM622/t or 43.7% from the same period last year. If prices sustain at this level, our average CPO price assumption of RM2,150/t for CY07 will be met by July. We maintain that the ceiling price will be RM2,600/t, which is the price for rapeseed oil. Substitution effect will help close the pricing gap.

7th trading weeks from 27th Feb

Discussion : Today is the 7th full trading week (49 trading days) from the "Huge Correction" of 27th Feb. Meaning that, according to Gann method it would be a REVERSAL day for today against the trend from previous day. Moreover, until 12.05am Dow index had drop 131.46 points at the momment. So,dear all, pls becarefull and never panic sell for today because overall the market is need a healthy correction in order to allow it to continue the uptrend.


Trade Idea: Short with cautious....


The U.S. trade deficit widened more than forecast in March as higher oil shipments drove the biggest increase in imports in more than four years.

The deficit rose 10.4 percent to $63.9 billion, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Imports and exports were the second highest on record. Climbing fuel costs also pushed the price of foreign goods higher for a third month in April, the Labor Department reported separately.

Americans buy two-thirds of their oil from abroad and the biggest rise in crude prices since June offset the benefit to U.S. exports from a weaker dollar. A more competitive exchange rate and expanding economies in Europe and Asia have trimmed the deficit from a record $68.9 billion in August.

``We were paying sharply more in March for imported oil, and frankly that's only going to contribute to a lot more red ink in April,'' said Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group in Pittsburgh.

The trade shortfall with China narrowed to $17.2 billion in March from $18.4 billion a month earlier. Imports from China were the lowest since May 2006 while exports were a record.

The wider shortfall will probably lead the government to revise down its estimate of first quarter economic growth. Economists at Morgan Stanley forecast revised figures will show the economy grew 0.9 percent in the first three months of the year, compared with the government's advance estimate of 1.3 percent issued last month.

Export Demand

``We saw a big increase in oil imports, but in general growth in the U.S. is slowing and we should see import growth moderating,'' said Jay Bryson, global economist at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina. ``As we look forward, trade should be less of a drag because of global demand for U.S. exports.''

A further report today from the Labor Department showed the number of first-time claims for jobless benefits dropped 9,000 to 297,000, the fewest in almost four months. The figures suggest firms are firing fewer workers even as the economy slows.

Economists had forecast the trade deficit would widen to $60 billion, from an originally reported $58.4 billion in February, according to the median of 78 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from $56.8 billion to $62 billion.

Imports of goods and services rose 4.5 percent in March, the biggest increase since November 2002, to $190.1 billion. Imports of industrial supplies, which include petroleum, rose to $49.1 billion from $44.1 billion.

Petroleum Imports

Imports of petroleum products rose to a seasonally adjusted $24.6 billion from $20.9 billion a month earlier. Crude oil futures traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange climbed above $66 a barrel in March for the first time since early September. Crude futures averaged $60.74 a barrel in March, compared with $59.39 in February.

Shipments to the U.S. of consumer goods rose to a record $40.1 billion from $39.4 billion. U.S. consumer spending stayed strong enough in March to sustain demand for goods imported from China and other countries, economists said. Retail sales in the U.S. rose in March by the most in three months, driven by rising incomes and mild weather.

Exports rose 1.8 percent to $126.2 billion in March from $124 billion a month earlier, led by record sales of industrial supplies and autos.

China Surplus

China, the second-largest U.S. trading partner, says it is trying to curb its trade surplus by easing import restrictions and reducing export incentives.

Some U.S. lawmakers say an undervalued Chinese currency is to blame for a trade gap between the two nations that widened to a record in 2006 for a fifth straight year. U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson on May 2 said he was concerned that the yuan's value is rising ``very slowly.'' Paulson also said it will take more than a stronger Chinese currency to reduce the record trade deficit between the two countries.

A weaker dollar may chip away at America's total trade gap by making U.S. goods cheaper abroad. During the 12 months ended in April, the dollar fell 3.1 percent against a trade-weighted basket of currencies of its biggest trading partners. It reached a record low of $1.3681 against the euro on April 27.

A slowing U.S. economy and faster growth among U.S. trading partners also point to a stabilizing trade gap, economists said.

Consumer spending may rise at an annual rate of 2.3 percent this quarter, and will grow 2.5 percent in the next three months, based on the median estimate economists surveyed by Bloomberg April 30 through May 8. Such spending grew 3.7 percent the past decade.

Zhou Says China Has Room to Raise Reserve Requirements Further

People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said there's room to raise commercial banks' reserve requirements further after seven increases in 11 months failed to slow lending and inflation.

``There surely is still room'' to raise the reserve requirements, Zhou said in an interview on a flight from Beijing to Frankfurt yesterday. Zhou, on his way to a meeting at the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, also said an acceleration in inflation to the fastest pace in two years is ``normal'' and ``not very unexpected.''

Premier Wen Jiabao is trying to prevent excess cash from a record trade surplus from stoking inflation, fueling wasteful investment and creating more bad loans. Economic growth accelerated to 11.1 percent in the first quarter from 10.4 percent in the previous three months, driven by a trade surplus that almost doubled to $46.4 billion.

Zhou has raised interest rates three times since April last year and sold bills to soak up liquidity in the banking system and stem price increases. Still, inflation accelerated to 3.3 percent in March, the highest rate in more than two years, and banks made 1.4 trillion yuan ($180 billion) of new loans in the first quarter alone, nearly half the total for last year.

``The recent acceleration in inflation is normal'' because prices of primary goods have increased substantially and labor costs have risen, Zhou said. ``We can't say there is no inflationary pressure, but it was not very unexpected.''


Zhou admitted that the psychological impact of reserve- ratio increases on the market is weakening. ``A weaker psychological impact can actually be a good thing,'' he said. ``People no longer have to feel so nervous.''

Each 0.5 percentage point increase in the reserve requirement removes about 170 billion yuan from the financial system. ``The quantitative effect is fixed,'' Zhou said. ``And this is objective.''

Local-currency deposits stood at 35.42 trillion yuan at March 31. Foreign exchange reserves, the world's largest, grew 37 percent from a year earlier, the fastest pace since November 2005.

While China isn't pursuing ``rapid'' growth in currency reserves, the economic adjustments that can slow the pace of growth ``take time,'' Zhou said.

The reserves grew by $1 million a minute in the first quarter, double the previous year's pace, on the export boom, foreign-currency swaps, and companies bringing home the proceeds of initial public offerings.

What if tonight Dow closed in negative territorry..?

What if the Dow Jones Index closed at negative territory tonight after a series of pro-long result from the productivity growth....( but in a slower trend ) ???



U.S. Economy: Productivity Growth Exceeds Forecasts

U.S. productivity growth was greater than forecast last quarter and labor costs moderated, easing concern that a tight job market will fuel inflation. Productivity, a measure of how much an employee produces for each hour of work, rose at an annual rate of 1.7 percent, the Labor Department said today in Washington, more than twice the pace projected by economists. The price of labor rose 0.6 percent pace after jumping 6.2 percent in the prior three months.
Employers responded to a slowdown in economic growth by shortening the workweek, squeezing out a gain in productivity. The slowdown in labor costs may ease concern companies will have to increase prices and gives credence to the Federal Reserve's forecast that inflation will gradually retreat.

Productivity growth is still slowing. In the fourth quarter, the gain was 2.1 percent. In the 12 months ended in March, productivity rose 1.1 percent, down from a 1.6 percent year-over-year gain the previous quarter. A separate report from the Institute for Supply Management showed service industries expanded faster than anticipated last month. Additional Labor Department numbers showed that the number of people filing claims for unemployment benefits fell to a three-month low of 305,000 last week.

Trend Slowing

Productivity grew just 1.6 percent last year after expanding 2.1 percent in 2005. Efficiency rose an average 3.2 percent per year from 2000 through 2005. This is ``the reason why the Fed is worried about inflation,'' Michael Gregory, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto, said before the report. Lower productivity ``means unit labor costs are facing more upward pressure and perhaps a little inflationary bias. The Fed is going to be sitting on its hands for a while.'' San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen said last week that she was concerned the long-term trend in productivity growth may have dropped to a range of 2 percent to 2.5 percent. ``A lower trend rate of productivity growth would help explain the sluggishness in business investment and put upward pressure on inflation for a time,'' Yellen said. Fed policy makers are scheduled to next vote on the direction of interest rates on May 9. They held the benchmark overnight lending rate between banks at 5.25 percent for a sixth consecutive time at their last meeting on March 21.