Sunday, September 2, 2007

Deja Vu All Over Again....?

The irony is that today, a decade later, the very same countries affected by crisis a decade ago, are the ones funding a growing U.S. current account deficit. Nicholas Carn, a partner at Odey Asset Management notes, "Countries that have built up large foreign currency reserves and run chronic surpluses, create a different set of issues".
Another irony – if another financial crisis were to emerge, the country most vulnerable would be the U.S.. Marc Chandler of Brown Brothers Harriman adds that if, "at some point if the Chinese pull out, the U.S. dollar would come under attack".
Why is September so bad? Part of the reason is a seasonal slowdown of money flowing into the market, so there's less new money to push up prices. In addition, Stovall says some mutual funds "have October as fiscal year-end, and may be selling losing positions from mid-September until mid-October."

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